My Vision of Higher Education in 2020
 
 

Looking ahead, the vision of higher education in future is encouraging and exciting. With the accelerating development of educational technologies, higher education in 2020 will surely be quite different from what it is today in terms of access, interaction, curriculum and instruction and university ranking among many others. But, the problems such as inequality, inequity, under representation for minority populations, inefficiency and insufficient financing that the higher education are facing now will not fade away easily. Probably they will become even serious with the technological transformation. In my vision, there presents two pictures simultaneously, one rosy and one less rosy.

Let's look at the rosy picture first.  Higher education in 2020 will be much more accessible to general public with the help of the revolutionized and popularized educational technologies. The SAT and other standard higher education admission tests will be dysfunctional. The physical locations and facilities will be less important in defining a college or a university. The educational resources of a higher education institution  will be easily accessed by outside general public who seek higher level learning through on-line technologies. Two very remarkable features of then higher education will shake the fundamental beliefs of economics of higher education and politics of higher education respectively.

It is accepted by all that the rate of return to investment in higher education is much smaller than that in other educational levels, because the opportunity cost for college students is much bigger than elementary and secondary students. The high school graduates have to forgo the working and earning opportunities to physically attend a college or a university. In 2020, however, the opportunity cost will be greatly reduced or minimized by the progress of educational technologies. A high school graduate need not give up working and earning opportunities to attend a college or university. The rate of return of higher education will be as high as elementary education if not higher. Investment usually goes to where the highest rate of return are generated. Thus, higher education will be in the top priority of governmental and private investment. Though currently with the lowest rate of return in comparison with other levels of education, high education is most closely connected to power. It screens against those who are poor and powerless by many measures including admission tests. The easy access to high education in 2020 will dismantle the concept of power of higher education and empower the general public who access higher education easily.

Second, the interaction between professors and students will be more frequent and effective in terms of internal relationship, because the traditional classroom teaching and office hours become unnecessary. In terms of external relationship, the interaction between a university and non-university communities will become easier and in wider range. And the university will respond quickly to the changes and influences in outside world. And both the internal efficiency and external efficiency will be greatly increased.

Third, the curriculum and instruction will be changed greatly. Because the new technologies make the learning and teaching more easily, the contents of some courses will be expanded, a considerable number of new courses will be generated, interdisplinary courses and studies will be more possible, and students and professors will contribute together to the development of curriculum.

Fourth, to both universities  and students, the currently somehow popular university ranking system will become obsolete. Except for historical implications, Harvard University, University of Illinois, Parkland College will not be rank related at first impression but as equally learning resources. The hierarchy of schooling system, which always incurs monopoly and inefficiency, will be replaced by equal independent individual higher education institutions with enormous initiatives and efficiency.

Now let's come to the picture less rosy.

I think problems with equality and equity  will continue challenging higher education in near future. First, educational technologies, which entails financial investment at least in initial stage in addition to technical expertise, depends on the development of economy. Whereas economy is not always under the control of general public and even the government or economists. Currently, America is fortunately experiencing rosy economic recoveries, so the technical investment in education is emphasized. If recession comes, the technical investment will surely slow down or stopped for most poor school communities.

The globalization is transforming the world into a more independent community. Equity problem become more serious from the global perspective. Most countries are still threatened by poverty. Even the Asian high-performing economies are besieged with financial and economic crisis. The higher education is affected by these economic and social factors, and will be polarized and more segregated (maybe not racially then) both domestically and globally.

If technology is still costly and expensive in 2020, the traditional minority populations will still be underrepresented in higher education system. Educational hierarchy will continue to wave its power and influence. Educational financing will still be a first big problem for minority populations.

To sum up, my vision of higher education in 2020 is more optimistic than pessimistic. The foresight of the difficulties and problems might help the educators, educationalists and education policy decision makers steer toward the right, promising future.